According to a recent tracker from Cambridge Judge Business School, the amount of new Covid cases in India has peaked and will continue to decline over the next two weeks to 23 May.
The tracker stated, however, that there is considerable heterogeneity in the trajectories of States and Union Territories.
Over the next two weeks, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Odisha, Puducherry, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and Tripura will continue to see a rise in cases.
A new CJBS COVID-19 Tracker for India, established in collaboration with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the Health Systems Transformation Platform in India, predicts the pandemic’s trajectory using a newly developed model.
These predictions are focused on a structural time series model that estimates using historical data but adapts to the most recent pattern. The model is defined in a Harvard Data Science Review article titled “Time series models focused on growth curves with applications to forecasting coronavirus” by Andrew Harvey, Emeritus Professor of Econometrics at the University of Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics, and Paul Kattuman, Reader in Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School.